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    Not a boom, but gradual oil price increases to $45 US by 3Q 2016

    (Posted February 15, 2016) 

    As growth in oil supply diminishes and demand growth continues (albeit at a diminished rate), the implied stock change (reserve growth) is declining. Global demand is currently 94.83 mb/d versus supply at 97.07 mb/d (4Q 2015) leaving a supply surplus of about 2.2 mb/d at the end of 2015. OPEC oil production totals are 32.6 mb/d as of January 2016 but grew by 1.7 bb/d in 2015 accounting for the bulk of the surplus. Around ¼ of this daily supply surplus at the end of 2015 has already been accounted for by diminished production and increased consumption in 2016 leaving current supply excesses (February, 2016) in the 1.87 mb/d range, some of which is being taken up by the building of strategic oil reserves. Current OECD reserves are pegged at 66 days supply. Further, demand for oil is projected to grow at 1.6 mb/d for 2016 leaving, other things being equal, little excess supply. By 3Q 2017, global supply and demand should, once again, be in balance. Part of this is being taken up by declines in US production (expected to diminish in 2016 by 0.535 mb/d) as well as declines in UK and other production. Against this, Canada’s output is expected to increase by 0.156 mb/d for 2016. Demand in the US is expected to remain flat for 2016 (but not decline) Demand continues to increase in China, India and the developing economies generally. Supply and demand balance by 3Q 2017 will gradually lead to price increases which should start to be able to be seen by 2Q 2016. 

    Integrated Analytics & Research Ltd.   

    FULL article on request.

    Facing Enrolment Declines in Post-Secondary Education in Canada: Strategies to Consider

    (Posted April 26, 2016)

    It is clear that the aging of the Canadian population has already had some impact on overall post-secondary enrolments. Given constant post-secondary participation rates, this impact will continue to 2023 when, compared to 2014, there will be over 35,000 fewer students in Canadian post-secondary institutions. The demographic effect will be more pronounced in universities and relatively less pronounced in colleges but many institutions will continue to face enrolment challenges well into the next decade. Given institutional funding models, which rely on government grants on a per student basis and/or on tuition, many public Canadian colleges and universities can expect eroding financial health unless actions are taken to increase student numbers, reduce costs, or raise revenues. Further, given that the enrolment challenge is generalized, there will be increasing competition between institutions for increasingly scarce students.  




    Canada's Post-Secondary Education Performance in International Perspective

    (Link to Statistics Canada-Posted April 1, 2016 -- copy and paste in browser)

    Integrated Analytics & Research Ltd. 
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